The new energy vehicle track is already full of bones, and countless car companies have fallen. In the eyes of some people, NIO may become one of them. NIO, which has suffered a huge loss of 81 billion yuan in six years, has recently fallen into bankruptcy for the second time. We can’t help but ask an old question, does NIO have a future?
Li Bin, who is known as the "godfather of travel", has a rather tortuous road to building a car, and the NIO he founded has a difficult fate. In 2019, NIO encountered a life-and-death crisis, and the capital chain was very tight for a time. It was rumored that it was only one step away from bankruptcy and bankruptcy. Li Bin was also dubbed "the worst person in 2019" by the media. Fortunately, the local government of Hefei, Anhui Province, offered tens of billions of life-saving funds and supported NIO in policies, land and other aspects. As a result, NIO not only became a salted fish, but also soared into the sky. But now four years later, NIO has once again fallen into the storm of bankruptcy and bankruptcy.
Early last month, NIO announced a 10% layoff, sparking concerns about its business conditions. Shortly after, rumors spread on social platforms that "NIO will expand its layoffs by 20% to 30%" and "NIO will go out of business". For a while, NIO was pushed to the forefront of the trend. Qin Lihong, president of NIO, had to stand up in person to respond: "NIO will not go out of business, and there is absolutely no possibility of it going out of business. Please feel free to experience and buy NIO’s cars." But such a response seems to be difficult to dispel the doubts of the outside world, because NIO is indeed under pressure.
NIO, which has been mired in bankruptcy for the second time, released its third-quarter financial report earlier this month. Although the financial report showed many positive results, with revenue and deliveries reaching "the best in history", its net loss was still as high as 4.56 billion yuan, an increase of 10.8% year-on-year. In the first three quarters of this year, NIO’s total net loss reached 15.56 billion yuan, exceeding the net loss of 14.56 billion yuan for the whole of last year. Increasing income without increasing profit seems to be a huge obstacle that NIO cannot overcome. In the first three quarters of this year, NIO delivered a total of 109,993 new cars. If calculated according to the net loss of 15.56 billion yuan in the same period, NIO will lose about 141,000 yuan for every car sold.
As a high-end luxury brand, the price of NIO vehicles is very high, even exceeding BBA, but each car still loses so much, mainly because NIO can burn money too much. Data show that in the five years from 2018 to 2022, NIO lost 23.328 billion yuan, 11.413 billion yuan, 5.611 billion yuan, 10.572 billion yuan and 14.559 billion yuan. If you add the 15.56 billion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, then in less than six years, NIO lost about 81 billion yuan. In less than six years, it burned more than 80 billion yuan, and as a result, it was "closed down" twice. No one but NIO.
Delivery volume is the life and death line of new forces. Without delivery volume, there will be nothing. Before 2022, NIO’s delivery volume growth rate has been in a state of high growth. Even if 91,400 vehicles are delivered in 2021 and 100,000 vehicles are not achieved, the delivery growth rate will still remain at a high level of 109%. However, in 2022, NIO ushered in an inflection point. 122,500 vehicles were delivered throughout the year, and the delivery growth rate dropped sharply to 34%, underperforming the market for the first time. Although it has rebounded this year, the delivery growth rate is still hovering at a low level of about 40%. From the perspective of delivery volume growth, NIO seems to have lost its former vigor.
In Li Bin’s plan, NIO is already working on two people-friendly sub-brands, Alps and Firefly. Their listing may bring new changes to NIO’s delivery volume. But whether they can explode in the fierce competition is still unknown. Of course, NIO also has two good news: First, NIO has acquired some car assets of Jianghuai Automobile and finally obtained independent production qualifications. There is no need to find Jianghuai OEM in the future, and the words "Jianghuai Automobile" on the tail of the car will disappear. Second, NIO has successfully joined hands with the national team Changan Automobile and the old independent giant Geely to cooperate in the power exchange business, which is expected to gradually get rid of the biggest loss burden.
As of September 30 this year, NIO had 45.20 billion yuan in cash reserves. This gave Li Bin the confidence to be optimistic: "What a big deal, isn’t there still tens of billions in the account?" But in fact, Li Bin should not be so optimistic. Even if you are optimistic, you must be prepared for danger in times of peace. According to the rate of burning money of about 5 billion yuan per quarter, this money is only enough for NIO to spend about two years. In other words, there are only two years left for NIO. In 2024, NIO is likely to face a "battle of life and death". We look forward to Li Bin leading NIO and creating miracles for the second time.