On September 3, the domestic vegetable futures collectively changed, with both rapeseed meal futures and rapeseed oil futures hitting their daily limit, and rapeseed futures rose by more than 9%.
Wenhua Finance data show that as of 13:54 Beijing time, the main contract of rapeseed meal futures hit the daily limit price of 2375 yuan/ton, up 6.03%; the main contract of rapeseed oil futures reported 8875 yuan/ton, up 5.32%, once hit the daily limit price of 8933 yuan/ton; the main contract of rapeseed futures reported 5276 yuan/ton, up 7.70%, and rose by more than 9% during the session.
On the news, on September 3, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce pointed out in response to a reporter’s question on Canada’s trade restrictions against China that China will launch an anti-dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports in accordance with relevant domestic laws and regulations and WTO rules. China will also initiate an anti-dumping investigation on Canadian chemical products based on domestic industry applications.
Industry insiders said that the above anti-dumping investigation news detonated the domestic cuisine futures market.
From a fundamental perspective, Galaxy FuturesResearcher Liu Qiannan said that in terms of European rapeseed, the European Union crop report in August continued to reduce the yield of European rapeseed from 3.1 tons/ha in July to 3.07 tons/ha, lower than the 5-year average. At present, the harvest of European rapeseed has been completed, and the output of new crops of European rapeseed has decreased by about 1.50 million tons year-on-year.
As for Canadian rapeseed, the rapeseed harvest has started one after another. As of the week of August 19, the rapeseed harvest progress in Alberta was only 0.2%, while the rapeseed harvest in Saskatchewan was 2%, lower than the same period last year. Recently, Statistics Canada raised the area sown and harvested last year’s rapeseed in Canada, which increased the output of old crops by 860,000 tons. At the same time, Canada raised the estimate of new crop production to 19.50 million tons, exceeding the market expectation of 19.217 million tons. In the next one to two weeks, the hot weather in Canada may continue, and the rainfall is expected to increase, but then the rainfall will continue to be less.
In terms of inventories, as of August 18, Canadian canola commercial inventories were 1.4949 million tons, down from the previous week, but inventories were significantly higher than the same period in history, and short-term Canadian canola supplies remained loose.
On the current Chinese rapeseed inventory, land futures research institute analyst Liu Huihua said that due to the large number of imports, rapeseed inventory as a whole is high, August 23 week coastal oil plant rapeseed inventory of 468,500 tons, slightly lower than the previous two weeks 500,000 tons of inventory.